The Trend, Revisited
Posted on May 17, 2014 by CHC   ᐃ ᐁ

Once again, the news media are reporting new highs in popular stock market indexes.  Does this mean it is a good time to invest?  Or is it a good time to sell and take profits?

I have absolutely no idea.  What I can do is tell you where we stand relative to The Trend.  (For details, please refer to my earlier post on this topic.)  After a little programming, I was able to add an information box to my sidebar that shows:

  • the current price of the S&P 500 index (updated every hour)
  • the predicted value of the S&P 500 index based on The Trend
  • the percentage difference between the index and its predicted value
  • the number of days that the index is ahead or behind its trend line

The S&P 500 index increases, on average, 7.1% every year — some years more, some less.  Since the index often goes up or down 1% or more in a single day, small departures from The Trend are meaningless.  As I write this, the S&P 500 index is almost right on trend — neither “on sale” nor historically overpriced.  It could stay this way for years, or the index could plunge or skyrocket overnight.  But it will inevitably return to the trend line.

For what it’s worth.

Be the first to comment | Read other posts in Life
Her Sweet Surprise
Posted on May 11, 2014 by CHC   ᐃ ᐁ

Sweet Surprise AdSometime in October of the year 1969, a sixteen-year-old brown-eyed Pennsylvania boy sat down and wrote the words to what he counted as his seventy-first song.  Like his hero John Lennon, the young man was inspired by an advertising poster — but not for a circus, as was the case when Mr. Lennon penned Being for the Benefit of Mr. Kite.  Rather, the ad that caught the youngster’s eye was for a Mother’s Day flower arrangement called “The FTD Sweet Surprise.”  Such was the humble yet stirring origin of the song Her Sweet Surprise by the naive, somewhat talented Pennsylvanian boy, Craig H. Collins.

Collins did not use his middle initial at the time.  No matter.

Collins would go on to record Her Sweet Surprise four years later (late 1973 or early 1974) in his Carnegie-Mellon University studio (aka dormitory room) in jug-band style, with his friend Rob Simbeck.  Collins provided electric guitar, the signature acoustic guitar run, percussion and main vocal.  Simbeck played acoustic guitar fill-in and lead as well as some higher-than-currently-imaginable vocal harmonies and an introductory burp.  Just recently, Collins decided to digitally remess with the original, forty-year-old, two-track analog tape, adding bass, keyboard and percussion parts.  The result can be heard here:

 Please listen to this selection on a decent sound system.  At least use headphones or earbuds.
Don’t even think about playing it on your tinny little laptop.

I am pleased to announce that, on June 24, 2014, the esteemed auction house Sotheby’s will make available the only known draft of the lyrics to this landmark song (along with lyrics and personal effects of another musician of the 1960s and 1970s).  In the copy of the draft (below) you can see that changes were made to the lyrics prior to the final recording.  As the manuscript expert Richard Austin said, “Here you have a chorus that is such an iconic piece of history, but it clearly didn’t arrive fully formed.  And you wonder, if he chose another rhyme, would it have had the same impact?”

Her Sweet Surprise - Lyrics

How does it feel, to be a complete unknown?


[raw]The draft lyrics are expected to fetch between $1 and $2 million* at auction.  All readers of The 100 Billionth Person are invited to submit bids.  For convenience, you may enter your bid in the Comment section of this post.[/raw]

________________________

* Bidders, please read the above carefully.  The minimum bid is $1.
Read 5 comments and add yours | Read other posts in Creativity, Life
Farm Report
Posted on May 7, 2014 by CHC   ᐃ ᐁ

It was not only I who thought we had a particularly long, cold and windy winter here in the North Carolina mountains. Our outdoor plants felt it too.  The tally of shrubs that turned into toast over the winter:

  • 3 Nandina
  • 3 Laurels
  • 6 Rhododendrons
  • 3 Roses
  • 5 Scotch Brooms
  • 3 Hollies
  • 3 Pieris
  • 1 Butterfly Bush

According to the USDA Plant Hardiness Map, this area is Zone 6b, meaning that I should ordinarily be safe choosing plants that can survive winter temps of 5 below zero.  Most of the plants sold locally are advertised as hardy to Zone 5 (-20F) but I find many that are only good for Zone 7 (+10F) or warmer.  I try to stick to Zone 4 and Zone 5 plants.

It was cold last winter, yes, but no way did our temperatures reach 5 below zero, let alone 20 below.  No matter — our lost plants acted like it did.  Winter winds at this 2800-foot elevation bite like a psychotic crab telling a Bill Maher joke with a lime in its mouth.

Spring was particularly slow to arrive here.  Most trees have just now finished leafing out, about two weeks later than normal.  Our hummingbirds, however, returned right on schedule the last week of April.  They flew up to the window where my wife usually puts the feeder, hovering to make sure we saw them.  Now that we are feeding them again, the hummers show their thanks by peeing on us as we sit on the deck, bless their little 1000-beat-per-minute hearts.

So now it is time to dig in and spread the eight cubic yards of mulch I ordered, to replace what was blown away in our spring cleanup or washed away (whatever wasn’t blown away) by the 5 inches of rain that fell in 5 hours on a Tuesday morning last week.  It will be me, my pitchfork, and my wheelbarrow, which I decided to name “Hauliver” after Oliver Wendell Douglas, my favorite character on my favorite show, “Green Acres.”  Fresh air.  The chores.

Oliver Wendell "Pitchfork" Collins

Goodbye, City Life!

 

Read 3 comments and add yours | Read other posts in News and Comment
Content © Craig H Collins 2026  ᐃ ᐁ