{"id":8298,"date":"2014-05-17T23:22:39","date_gmt":"2014-05-18T03:22:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chcollins.com\/100Billion\/?p=8298"},"modified":"2022-08-01T07:43:08","modified_gmt":"2022-08-01T11:43:08","slug":"trend-revisited","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chcollins.com\/100Billion\/2014\/05\/trend-revisited\/","title":{"rendered":"The Trend, Revisited"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Once again, the news media are reporting new highs in popular stock market indexes.\u00a0 Does this mean it is a good time to invest?\u00a0 Or is it a good time to sell and take profits?<\/p>\n<p>I have absolutely no idea.\u00a0 What I can do is tell you where we stand relative to <span style=\"color: #008000;\">The Trend<\/span>.\u00a0 (For details, please refer to <a href=\"http:\/\/chcollins.com\/100Billion\/2013\/02\/the-trend\/\">my earlier post<\/a> on this topic.)\u00a0 After a little programming, I was able to add an information box to my sidebar that shows:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>the current price of the S&amp;P 500 index (updated every hour)<\/li>\n<li>the predicted value of the S&amp;P 500 index based on <span style=\"color: #008000;\">The Trend<\/span><\/li>\n<li>the percentage difference between the index and its predicted value<\/li>\n<li>the number of days that the index is ahead or behind its trend line<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 index increases, on average, 7.1% every year &#8212; some years more, some less.\u00a0 Since the index often goes up or down 1% or more in a single day, small departures from <span style=\"color: #008000;\">The Trend<\/span> are meaningless.\u00a0 As I write this, the S&amp;P 500 index is almost right on trend &#8212; neither &#8220;on sale&#8221; nor historically overpriced.\u00a0 It could stay this way for years, or the index could plunge or skyrocket overnight.\u00a0 But it will inevitably return to the trend line.<\/p>\n<p>For what it&#8217;s worth.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Once again, the news media are reporting new highs in popular stock market indexes.\u00a0 Does this mean it is a good time to invest?\u00a0 Or is it a good time to sell and take profits? I have absolutely no idea.\u00a0 &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/chcollins.com\/100Billion\/2014\/05\/trend-revisited\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[39],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8298","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-interests"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/chcollins.com\/100Billion\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8298","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/chcollins.com\/100Billion\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/chcollins.com\/100Billion\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chcollins.com\/100Billion\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chcollins.com\/100Billion\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8298"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/chcollins.com\/100Billion\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8298\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8305,"href":"https:\/\/chcollins.com\/100Billion\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8298\/revisions\/8305"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/chcollins.com\/100Billion\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8298"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chcollins.com\/100Billion\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8298"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chcollins.com\/100Billion\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8298"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}