Biden vs. Trump: June 25

As promised, here is an update of the electoral map of Biden vs. Trump, based on the most recent non-partisan high-quality polls from each state, as tabulated on FiveThirtyEight:

Blue denotes states in which Biden currently leads, and orange denotes states in which a plurality of those polled prefer the deranged demagogue.  Lighter shades of color indicate a lead of 2 percent or less.  States with no color have not been polled since March 1.

With respect to electoral votes, if these polls were predictive of the final outcome, then Biden would have 358 electoral votes and Trump 101.  If we add in the unpolled states and assume that they vote in accordance with historical trends, the tally would be 406 vs. 132.

The states that have been flipping back and forth over the past month are Texas, Georgia and North Carolina.  If Trump were to win all of those states, plus Arizona and Ohio, the totals would still be 308 for Biden and 230 for Trump.

That said, it’s all about who shows up (or mails in their ballots) in November.  That’s the message that Biden needs to hammer home.

Another update next month.

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2 Responses to Biden vs. Trump: June 25

  1. Eric says:

    I doubt that 2020 will make anyone’s list of “My Favorite Years”, although if these projections hold true, it would surely climb in the rankings.

  2. Enrique says:

    Remember, polls were notoriously unreliable last time around! To the point, there are two problems with polls: one is that people lie! The other is that polls don’t measure one’s likelihood of actually voting on election day. So, why not use a proxy–such as online sales of campaign masks–in order to measure public support of the presidential candidates? More here: https://priorprobability.com/2020/06/23/memo-to-nate-silver/

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