2020 Matchup Maps – Super Tuesday Edition

[Update 3/1/2020: Polls from Jan. 1 – Mar. 1 for the top six candidates are included.]

For the past few weeks, I have been preparing U.S. electoral maps that show how the top Democratic presidential candidates would fare against Donald Trump, if the election were held today and assuming the most recent polls are predictive of the outcome.  The purpose of this feature is to show the relative strength of the candidates, as a guide for your voting.  Super Tuesday primaries may determine whether this is the last edition of this feature.

I prepare these maps from the most recent polls from each state, using RealClearPolitics and 538 as my sources.  I ignore polls from 2019, as well as partisan and low-quality polls, as rated by 538.  Orange (!) denotes states where Trump leads the Democratic challenger and blue where the Democrat is ahead; gray denotes a tie; and blank means there are no recent head-to-head polls for that candidate.  Pale colors represent one percent leads.

As always, the swing states deserving your attention are Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Virginia.  Oddly, there are no Ohio matchup polls as yet.

This is the first week that I have included matchup maps for Klobuchar and Bloomberg.   Klobuchar seems to be staying in the race in hopes of winning Minnesota on Tuesday.  Bloomberg seems to be in the race to see how desperate we really are.

Not to put my thumb on the scales but here is where I stand:  I’m partial to Klobuchar yet I’d like to vote for Warren but I think I have to vote for Biden.












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One Response to 2020 Matchup Maps – Super Tuesday Edition

  1. Pete says:

    Hillary beat Trump by 5% in Virginia in 2016. I have a hard time believing that these polls show Trump taking Virginia over everyone but Biden. Virginia also had a democratic landslide election recently. Republicans who ran in the state races as allied with Trump-style politics got booted.

    Similarly, I have a hard time believing that Florida is solid blue for ANY Democratic candidate. Trump won by 2% in 2016, and since then Florida (narrowly) elected a conservative governor. I highly doubt Florida is going to come out strongly in favor of Bernie.

    One thing I agree with is that none of these maps have Texas as a possible democratic win. The papers like to keep talking about it like it’s going to happen one day, but I seriously doubt it.

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