[Update 3/1/2020: Polls from Jan. 1 – Mar. 1 for the top six candidates are included.]
For the past few weeks, I have been preparing U.S. electoral maps that show how the top Democratic presidential candidates would fare against Donald Trump, if the election were held today and assuming the most recent polls are predictive of the outcome. The purpose of this feature is to show the relative strength of the candidates, as a guide for your voting. Super Tuesday primaries may determine whether this is the last edition of this feature.
I prepare these maps from the most recent polls from each state, using RealClearPolitics and 538 as my sources. I ignore polls from 2019, as well as partisan and low-quality polls, as rated by 538. Orange (!) denotes states where Trump leads the Democratic challenger and blue where the Democrat is ahead; gray denotes a tie; and blank means there are no recent head-to-head polls for that candidate. Pale colors represent one percent leads.
As always, the swing states deserving your attention are Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Virginia. Oddly, there are no Ohio matchup polls as yet.
This is the first week that I have included matchup maps for Klobuchar and Bloomberg. Klobuchar seems to be staying in the race in hopes of winning Minnesota on Tuesday. Bloomberg seems to be in the race to see how desperate we really are.
Not to put my thumb on the scales but here is where I stand: I’m partial to Klobuchar yet I’d like to vote for Warren but I think I have to vote for Biden.
2020 POLLS (TO MARCH 1)