2020 Matchup Maps

[Update Feb. 17, 2020: Polls from December 11 to February 14 are included.  Polls from Alabama, Texas and Wisconsin have been added/updated.  Refresh your browser to ensure that the latest maps are displayed.]

For the next few months, I will be running a new feature here on The 100 Billionth Person: U.S. electoral maps that show how the top four Democratic presidential candidates would fare against Donald Trump, if the election were held today and assuming the source polls are accurate.  I will be updating this page with the most recent poll results every Sunday, and I have provided a link in the sidebar to make it easier for you to check in.

I prepare these maps from the most recent polls in each state, using RealClearPolitics and 538 as my sources.  I ignore polls that are over two months old, as well as partisan polls and low-quality polls, as defined by 538.  Orange (!) indicates states where Trump leads the Democratic challenger; blue indicates the Democrat is ahead; gray denotes a tie; and states with no recent head-to-head polls are white.  Click on any map to view it full size.

A final comment: I’m no expert, but I suspect that polls in which a respondent is asked her opinion on several head-to-head matchups may be subject to anchoring bias, i.e., how a respondent answers the second and subsequent questions may be influenced by her desire to maintain consistency with her first answer.  I don’t know whether pollsters take this into account but I suspect not, as that would increase the number of people to be polled.












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One Response to 2020 Matchup Maps

  1. Pete says:

    Hillary beat Trump by 5% in Virginia in 2016. I have a hard time believing that these polls show Trump taking Virginia over everyone but Biden. Virginia also had a democratic landslide election recently. Republicans who ran in the state races as allied with Trump-style politics got booted.

    Similarly, I have a hard time believing that Florida is solid blue for ANY Democratic candidate. Trump won by 2% in 2016, and since then Florida (narrowly) elected a conservative governor. I highly doubt Florida is going to come out strongly in favor of Bernie.

    One thing I agree with is that none of these maps have Texas as a possible democratic win. The papers like to keep talking about it like it’s going to happen one day, but I seriously doubt it.

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