[Update Feb. 17, 2020: Polls from December 11 to February 14 are included. Polls from Alabama, Texas and Wisconsin have been added/updated. Refresh your browser to ensure that the latest maps are displayed.]
For the next few months, I will be running a new feature here on The 100 Billionth Person: U.S. electoral maps that show how the top four Democratic presidential candidates would fare against Donald Trump, if the election were held today and assuming the source polls are accurate. I will be updating this page with the most recent poll results every Sunday, and I have provided a link in the sidebar to make it easier for you to check in.
I prepare these maps from the most recent polls in each state, using RealClearPolitics and 538 as my sources. I ignore polls that are over two months old, as well as partisan polls and low-quality polls, as defined by 538. Orange (!) indicates states where Trump leads the Democratic challenger; blue indicates the Democrat is ahead; gray denotes a tie; and states with no recent head-to-head polls are white. Click on any map to view it full size.
A final comment: I’m no expert, but I suspect that polls in which a respondent is asked her opinion on several head-to-head matchups may be subject to anchoring bias, i.e., how a respondent answers the second and subsequent questions may be influenced by her desire to maintain consistency with her first answer. I don’t know whether pollsters take this into account but I suspect not, as that would increase the number of people to be polled.
DECEMBER 11 – FEBRUARY 14